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Analyst: Trade deal won't have big impact on autos

Analyst: Trade deal won't have big impact on autos (10 Dec 2019) An analyst says the new North American trade pact will have no "major impact" on the auto industry.

Jeff Schuster, an analyst with LMC Automotive in suburban Detroit, spoke Tuesday following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's announcement that Democrats had reached an agreement with the White House on the revamped U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

The USMCA would replace the original North American Free Trade Agreement.

"As we look at auto sales and look at the impact on the auto industry, we don't anticipate any major impact," said Schuster, who is LMC Automotive's president of Americas Operation & Global Vehicle Forecasting.

Many Democrats, especially those from manufacturing areas hit hard by trade-related job losses, have been critical of the 25-year-old NAFTA accord. Pelosi has negotiated with President Donald Trump's administration extensively to win stronger enforcement provisions for workers.

"To an extent there's a little bit more protection than there was in the previous NAFTA agreement," Schuster said. "So, USMCA is, again, a little bit more protective of the U.S. worker, so I suspect the unions certainly would like it more than the previous NAFTA, which obviously had some issues."

The pact contains provisions designed to nudge manufacturing back to the United States. For example, it requires that 40% to 45% of cars eventually be made in countries that pay autoworkers at least $16 an hour, that is, in the United States and Canada and not in Mexico.



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