In today's video we will look at the #talent of Foresight. There are four steps to build your foresight.
1. Sighting harbingers
Every major change in a company, or in an industry is preceded by signs that it is about to happen. We just have to be able to spot them. For instance, if people stop debating in business meetings, that could be a sign that the #leadership is about to change. If an industry is dominated by only one or two companies and their customers are unhappy, that’s a sign that a competitor will pop up and take their business away. If you see the defense industry adopting a new technology get ready for it to disrupt your industry in the next 5-10 years.
How good are you at spotting such signs or harbingers?
2. Phrasing questions
We always try to find the right answers. For instance, the feature your customer will want most. Or the area to invest money in. Or the shape of the economy in the next quarter.
When things are changing so rapidly… and there is so much to know… it isn’t possible to have all the right answers. So what becomes more critical is the ability to ask the right questions.
For instance, talk to customers frequently to learn what they want most. Study the investments your competitors are making and ask why. Analyze the sectors of the economy relevant to your industry and ask what’s changing.
Questions shape our thinking, help us develop our teams and make it easier for us to predict the future.
3. Committing to your answers
You improve what you measure. So if you have asked a question about the future and have come up with an answer, write it down somewhere. In fact, add your probability estimate to it. Human beings are really forgetful. Writing down specifics in this way will help you evaluate your own ability to predict and improve it.
4. Updating responses
As you learn new things, discover facts you weren’t aware of, your perception of the future might change. When that happens, update your prediction. Updating is an important part of learning to predict. Keep updating until your prediction manifests itself. Doing this over and over again will build your foresight.
You may be the sort of person who plans for the day, or you may plan for the week or the month. There is a rare chance that you plan for the year. Very few people plan for 5-10 years. It takes a different kind of thinking to imagine a future that far out. That is the kind of thinking we need to develop Foresight as a talent.
Remember 3 principles to be able to predict like Nostradamus:
1. We don’t know what the future will be so consider different possibilities.
2. Foresight is the looking into the future and identifying the most likely possibilities.
3. The purpose of Foresight is to learn from all possibilities.
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